基于主成分分析和熵的喀斯特地区水资源承载力动态变化研究——以贵阳市为例

以贵阳市为例,通过主成分分析法从15个指标中选取出影响喀斯特地区水资源承载力动态变化的3个主成分,并用熵值法对其赋权,计算出1998-2003年贵阳市水资源承载力的综合得分。进而得出,虽然贵阳市水资源承载力的两大主要压力人口和经济发展逐年增长,但除2002年出现小的波动,整体上6年来水资源承载力向良好方向发展。2002年水资源总量比较大,但受喀斯特发育的影响,水资源渗漏严重,反而使得从水资源承载力指标上来看,水资源承载力(尤其是单位水资源承载力)有所降低。随着科技的发展,水资源开发利用率和节水水平的提高,喀斯特地区水资源承载力还会有较大的富余空间。     

新疆喀什地区地下水铁锰水文地球化学及演化规律

新疆喀什地区高铁锰地下水严重影响当地供水水质安全及居民身体健康.基于数据收集及水文地质调查基础上,利用171组地下水水样测试数据,借助统计学方法和PHREEQC软件反演对喀什地区地下水铁锰水文地球化学进行研究.结果表明,研究区地下水Fe超标率为39.8%,垂向为深层承压水>浅层承压水>潜水;Mn超标率为60.8%,垂向为浅层承压水>潜水>深层承压水,Mn含量的超标率普遍高于Fe含量的超标率,且分布范围更广,更普遍;高铁锰地下水主要富集于SO₄·Cl-Na·Ca·Mg型水、SO₄·Cl-Na·Mg型水和SO₄·Cl-Na·Ca型水中,高矿化度地下水和蒸发浓缩作用有利于铁锰富集,潜水Fe含量受人为因素影响较大;研究区地下水Fe主要为Fe （Ⅱ）,Mn均为Mn （Ⅱ）;研究区地下水中铁的来源主要为原生地层中褐铁矿,部分为菱铁矿和其他含铁矿物,锰的来源主要为黑锰矿、软锰矿和部分菱锰矿等含锰矿物;潜水中As参与Fe的阳离子交换作用生成Fe （Ⅱ）,承压含水层Mn在高矿化度地下水中持续发生阳离子交换作用,随着含水层深度加大,研究区地下水中的黑锰矿、褐铁矿和软锰矿溶解始终未达到饱和,持续溶解.     

地铁隧道施工安全风险演化的BP-SD模型研究

为深入研究地铁隧道施工风险的动态演化过程,结合系统动力学(SD)、误差反向传播(BP)神经网络与平均影响值（MIV）算法,确定模型中影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数,构建地铁隧道施工风险演化的BP-SD模型。模型仿真结果表明:安全管理风险系统与施工人员风险系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最大,施工环境系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响次之,机械设备系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最小。因此,可通过降低安全管理风险值与施工人员风险值控制地铁隧道施工风险发生的概率。     

安全文化学课程内容及其教材框架设计研究

为构建安全文化学课程内容体系,进而为安全文化学教材编著奠定基础,分析安全文化学的内涵及课程地位与性质。基于此,从风险社会视阈与“大安全—大文化”视角介入,建立安全文化学课程内容体系的逻辑结构图,并构建安全文化学课程内容体系结构。在此基础上,对安全文化学课程教材编著从指导思想及内容深度与广度2方面进行思考。结果表明:安全文化学课程内容体系建构及其教材编著意义重大且急需,该研究为安全文化学教材编著,以及高等院校安全工程专业人才培养中开设安全文化学课程奠定了基础。     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

THE DISCHARGE OF SEDIMENT IN CHANNELIZED ALLUVIAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Approximately 400 million cubic feet of channel sediments have been delivered to the Mississippi River from the Obion-Forked Deer River system in the last 20 years. The discharge of sediment from these channelized networks in West Tennessee varies systematically with the stage of channel evolution. Variations in yields over time reflect the shifting dominance of fluvial and mass-wasting processes as the networks adjust to lower energy conditions. Maximum bed-material discharges occur during the initial phases of degradation (Stage III). In contrast, yields of suspended-sediment peak during the threshold stage (Stage 1V: large-scale mass wasting) as sediments are delivered from main-channel banks and tributary beds. Suspended-sediment yields then decrease as aggradation (Stage V) becomes the dominant trend in the main channels, but remains relatively high through restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because of continued degradation and widening in the tributaries. Bed-material discharges decrease from the degradation stage (III) to Stage V, and increase again during restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because secondary aggradation increases gradients and incipient meandering serves to rework bed sediments. This secondary maxima in bed-material discharge is analogous to those described previously as complex, or oscillatory, response. The trends of sediment production and transport described from these rejuvenated networks are in agreement with experimental and theoretical results of earlier investigations.     

雀形目八种鸟核型的比较研究

采用空气干燥法制备骨髓细胞染色体标本 ,报道了雀形目 5科 8种鸟的核型 ,其中八色鸫科为世界首次报道核型的科 .比较研究表明 :臂间倒位和小染色体缺失在所描述类群的染色体进化中起着重要作用 .图版 2表 6参 15     

Estimating Watershed Level Nonagricultural Pesticide Use From Golf Courses Using Geospatial Methods1

Abstract: Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf‐grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface‐water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land‐cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land‐cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined with label rates, resulted in greater than two orders of magnitude over‐estimation of the pesticide use compared to estimates from sales data.     

环渤海地区生态效率评价及空间演化规律

运用三阶段DEA模型对环渤海沿海地区17个城市的生态效率进行测算,并结合标准差椭圆和重心坐标方法,定量分析了2006-2015年环渤海地区生态效率的空间演化规律。结果表明：（1）基于三阶段DEA模型测算的生态效率结果,环渤海沿海17市的生态效率总体呈中等偏上水平,且2006-2015年效率值持续上升,天津、唐山、青岛、大连位居前四,17市中绝大多数城市生态效率值低于环渤海平均值,地区差异十分显著。（2）标准差椭圆结果显示环渤海沿海地区生态效率整体呈东北—西南格局,且有逐渐向西南偏移的趋势。（3）环渤海地区生态效率存在明显的省际差异性,且各省限制性因素区别较大。     

长江三角洲城市群工业污染时空演化及其驱动因素

基于2003~2015年长江三角洲（以下简称长三角）城市群26个城市工业废水和工业SO₂排放数据,采用标准差椭圆、地理集中指数、工业环境绩效指数、空间形态差异指数等方法从宏观和微观视角对长三角城市群工业污染时空演化进行分析,同时采用对数平均迪氏分解（LMDI）模型对其工业污染排放主要驱动因素进行分解.研究发现：2003~2015年工业废水和工业SO₂排放量分别下降了16.97%和28.79%,但占全国比重仍然较高,尤其是工业废水对生态环境胁迫较大.2种工业污染空间形态均呈现出北（偏西）-南（偏东）的空间分布形态,而2种工业污染重心移动轨迹并不一致,工业废水重心总体上朝向东（偏南）方向迁移了12.85km,而工业SO₂重心总体上朝向西（偏北）方向迁移了26.89km.此外,2种工业污染主要集中分布于长江沿岸城市且污染集中度指数由高到低大致呈半圈层状向周围递减.工业发展与工业污染空间形态演变具有一致性,工业废水重心和工业SO₂重心与工业发展重心距离均在逐渐缩小,而2种工业污染-环境绩效空间分布格局并不完全一致.驱动因素方面,环境规制引起的技术改善效应是工业污染排放量减少的主要原因,而由环境规制引起的产业结构效应对工业污染排放量的影响则取决于区域发展政策,经济发展效应是工业污染排放量增加的主要原因,人口规模效应对工业污染排放量的影响较小.